The European Union in Turkey: a factor of change
1) Conflict and instability in Turkey
Turkey is placed in an immensely complex geo-strategic context, bordering countries that constitute three very different realities: on one hand, countries like Greece and Bulgaria enmeshed in a European political dynamic; on the other, countries like Syria, Iraq and Iran, which are, not only extremely problematic by themselves, but also placed in the extremely problematic Middle East. Finally, Armenia, part of the Caucasus security complex, directly linked to Russia and its instability in the Ossetia region. Interestingly enough, none of Turkey’s major security problems is directly linked to the instability in those other countries.
Greece, Islamism, Cyprus, Armenia and the Kurds have been the main issues for Turkish security in the last few years, although in different degrees of ‘danger’. Greece has been the awkward enemy, an enemy within the same collective security organization – NATO. Nonetheless, especially after the terrible earthquakes in 1999, which affected both Turkey and Greece, with only some months in between, both countries became closer to each other, putting aside most of the rivalry that existed between them. Greece’s perception that Turkey would be a more reliable neighbour if inside the EU rather than outside, also contributed to that easing of tensions. Armenia is still a country not recognized by Ankara, and, until recently, Armenian groups were undertaking terrorist attacks in Turkey. Despite of that, the Armenian issue has become more a political rather than a security issue. That leaves us with three predominant ‘threats’: Islamism, Kurds and Cyprus.
2) The EU involvement
The EU has become an extremely relevant actor in Turkey in the last 10 years, when Ancara took the prospect of EU adhesion as its major priority in Foreign Affairs. Since then, several reforms have been implemented in the country in order to face EU conditionalities. Almost every corner of Turkish society has been more or less directly affected by those reforms; almost every topic in Turkish politics has suffered an EU-conditioned review. When it comes to security issues, not only the civil-military relations have been changing, but the ‘threats’ themselves have evolved with the EU impact. In the three main instability factors that are still perceived as prevalent by the Turkish, all of them have suffered changes with the EU adhesion process. Cyprus has become a paramount issue in the Brussels-Ankara negotiations. The Kurdish issues has re-emerged as a major security threat to the country, since the end of the cease-fire declaration by the Kurdish guerrilla movement, PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), in 2004. Finally, the ‘religious threat’ has acquired an ambiguous stance, since November 2002, when AKP (Justice and Development Party ) won the Parliament majority in Turkey. For one side, the more secular sectors of Turkish society have become less nervous about the prospects of a political party strongly identified with Islam, ruling the country; for the other, they are still very sensitive to any policy that wishes to promote a greater role for religion in the country.
3) Topics for further development
In general it could be said that the work EU has been trying to develop with Turkey is towards the consolidation of its democracy, the enhancement of the Rule of Law and especially the resolution of its most intractable social conflicts. That said, the way EU has approached the previously mentioned three major ‘threats to the Turkish state can be seen as ambivalent at best, in some cases even counter productive. In our paper we will try to assess how different approaches to these threats by Brussels have been producing different results and its implications for the more general goal of turning Turkey into an established non-securitized democracy.
Turkey is placed in an immensely complex geo-strategic context, bordering countries that constitute three very different realities: on one hand, countries like Greece and Bulgaria enmeshed in a European political dynamic; on the other, countries like Syria, Iraq and Iran, which are, not only extremely problematic by themselves, but also placed in the extremely problematic Middle East. Finally, Armenia, part of the Caucasus security complex, directly linked to Russia and its instability in the Ossetia region. Interestingly enough, none of Turkey’s major security problems is directly linked to the instability in those other countries.
Greece, Islamism, Cyprus, Armenia and the Kurds have been the main issues for Turkish security in the last few years, although in different degrees of ‘danger’. Greece has been the awkward enemy, an enemy within the same collective security organization – NATO. Nonetheless, especially after the terrible earthquakes in 1999, which affected both Turkey and Greece, with only some months in between, both countries became closer to each other, putting aside most of the rivalry that existed between them. Greece’s perception that Turkey would be a more reliable neighbour if inside the EU rather than outside, also contributed to that easing of tensions. Armenia is still a country not recognized by Ankara, and, until recently, Armenian groups were undertaking terrorist attacks in Turkey. Despite of that, the Armenian issue has become more a political rather than a security issue. That leaves us with three predominant ‘threats’: Islamism, Kurds and Cyprus.
2) The EU involvement
The EU has become an extremely relevant actor in Turkey in the last 10 years, when Ancara took the prospect of EU adhesion as its major priority in Foreign Affairs. Since then, several reforms have been implemented in the country in order to face EU conditionalities. Almost every corner of Turkish society has been more or less directly affected by those reforms; almost every topic in Turkish politics has suffered an EU-conditioned review. When it comes to security issues, not only the civil-military relations have been changing, but the ‘threats’ themselves have evolved with the EU impact. In the three main instability factors that are still perceived as prevalent by the Turkish, all of them have suffered changes with the EU adhesion process. Cyprus has become a paramount issue in the Brussels-Ankara negotiations. The Kurdish issues has re-emerged as a major security threat to the country, since the end of the cease-fire declaration by the Kurdish guerrilla movement, PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), in 2004. Finally, the ‘religious threat’ has acquired an ambiguous stance, since November 2002, when AKP (Justice and Development Party ) won the Parliament majority in Turkey. For one side, the more secular sectors of Turkish society have become less nervous about the prospects of a political party strongly identified with Islam, ruling the country; for the other, they are still very sensitive to any policy that wishes to promote a greater role for religion in the country.
3) Topics for further development
In general it could be said that the work EU has been trying to develop with Turkey is towards the consolidation of its democracy, the enhancement of the Rule of Law and especially the resolution of its most intractable social conflicts. That said, the way EU has approached the previously mentioned three major ‘threats to the Turkish state can be seen as ambivalent at best, in some cases even counter productive. In our paper we will try to assess how different approaches to these threats by Brussels have been producing different results and its implications for the more general goal of turning Turkey into an established non-securitized democracy.
posted by CIRESP - Grupo Conflitos, Paz e Democracia @ 2:38 PM
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